Can Ukraine Save Biden’s Brand?

Joe Biden (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

President Joe Biden has suffered falling approval numbers since August 2021, however Ukraine could possibly be his turning level. Unable to fairly work out the previous saying “never let a good crisis go to waste,” the commander-in-chief didn’t eke out a win along with his response to the persevering with pandemic, an financial system in shambles, and even the early days of the Russian invasion. But now that issues are rolling, can he lastly capitalize on the disaster? Will Ukraine lastly save Biden’s model?

Leading From Behind

Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

As Liberty Nation Senior Political Analyst Tim Donner identified, Biden’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – as his reply to most points all through his presidency – was successfully “can’t do much right now.” He handed the blame, shirking duty and providing no actual options.

But then others started to behave, and the chance of doing nothing grew to become larger than doing the incorrect factor. He claimed the worth of gasoline in America is all Vladimir Putin’s fault – neglect in regards to the precise worth traits, which paint a unique story – and there wasn’t a lot to be achieved about it, effectively, till there was. He signed his government motion banning Russian vitality imports, after the House of Representatives launched a bipartisan invoice to do exactly that; laws which sailed by by a exceptional 414 to 17.

Biden “led the way” with crippling financial sanctions in opposition to Russia, after a lot of NATO agreed to behave as effectively, and nonetheless these measures don’t go into impact till June. He can boast of all the cash he’s sending Ukraine – due to Congress’ effort to work it into the annual spending bundle.

The president permitted $200 million value of weapons and tools to be rushed to Ukraine, however not till after Poland provided to provide the beleaguered nation its total provide of MiG-29 fighter jets and requested the US to make use of an American base to switch the planes. The request was denied, in fact, however not lengthy after Poland went public with the provide, approval got here down from on excessive for the American floor tools.

Biden has the chance to current himself as a frontrunner now, even when he’s main from behind, which, as Donner defined, means “saying you are in charge while hiding behind nations you should be leading.”

Paying the Problem Away

In the 2022 annual funding omnibus, Congress permitted – and, due to this fact, Biden can declare credit score for – $13.6 billion in help to Ukraine, particularly in response to the Russian invasion. Earlier, on Feb. 28, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken introduced the administration’s “response” to that time:

“Last fall, as the present threat against Ukraine from Russia developed, under authority delegated by the President, I authorized the Department of Defense to provide $60 million in immediate military assistance to Ukraine. In December, as that threat materialized, I authorized a further drawdown worth $200 million. Today, as Ukraine fights with courage and pride against Russia’s brutal and unprovoked assault, I have authorized, pursuant to a delegation by the President, an unprecedented third Presidential Drawdown of up to $350 million for immediate support to Ukraine’s defense. This brings the total security assistance the United States has committed to Ukraine over the past year to more than $1 billion.”

Then there’s the extra $200 million in weapons and tools, introduced March 12, and nearly actually extra American tax {dollars} will make their technique to Ukraine because the conflict continues. It’s simple to provide freely to assist out a buddy when it’s solely cash, particularly popping out of another person’s pockets, however all that extra funding is a wonderful alternative to say, “Look at me. I’ve our buddy’s again – proper within the trenches with ‘im!” From a man who claimed numerous times to have been arrested for marching for civil rights, this chance should be glaringly obvious.

Media Manipulations

No matter how well – or poorly – the president manages to capitalize on the crisis, the friendly media are already doing their part to hype him as the man leading the charge. Little is being reported right now about that scuttled Polish jet deal; most of the coverage is either in defense of the call not to go through with it – it could, after all, be seen as American interference by Russia – or highlighting how the weapons and ground equipment en route are so much better than Polish MiGs.

NBC even took a page from Biden’s guide and lobbed assaults on the forty fifth president with the headline: “Ukraine dents ‘America First’ thinking deep in the heart of Trump country.” In the identical vein is Politico’s “Trump’s shadow lurks over Biden’s support for Ukraine.” Then there’s basic constructive messaging, like these from The New York Times: “Ukraine War Ushers in ‘New Era’ for Biden and US Abroad” and “Don’t Blame Biden for US Gasoline Prices.”

History Lessons

What can Ukraine do for Biden? Americans are outraged, and if the president and his allies within the press play their playing cards proper, the US response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine can maybe do for Biden what 9/11 did for George W. Bush. But even when it does, it doubtless received’t have a long-term profit.

In February 2001, W. loved a 57% approval score, in keeping with Gallup, and he remained in that neighborhood by the Sept. 10 ballot. Then terrorists attacked the homeland on Sept. 11. By Sept. 15, his approval had shot as much as 86%. It pushed even larger, into the 90s, however dropped once more by March 2002, returning to the low 60s by 12 months’s finish and excessive 50s shortly after.

Then the conflict with Iraq started in March 2003. General approval spiked to 71% nearly instantly. This time, nevertheless, the height was neither as excessive nor as broad. By May he was again within the low 60s. Things went, for probably the most half, downhill from there. Month after month, Bush’s basic approval score fell till it wallowed within the excessive 20s/low 30s for his remaining 12 months in workplace.

Bush 43 started his presidency in a barely higher place than Biden – judging by basic approval rankings – and he held these numbers till the assault on American soil received the patriotic blood flowing and served as his unifying catastrophe. But neither polling enhance lasted, and the president ended up worse off than he was to start with.

History exhibits us a tragedy can result in a right away spike in public approval, however Biden hasn’t seen it but. His basic approval-disapproval, in keeping with Rasmussen Reports, sits at 40%-58%, with solely 20% strongly approving in comparison with 50% strongly disapproving. If there’s enchancment to be made, he has a a lot deeper gap to dig out of – and a for much longer drop if he falls again.

~ Read extra from James Fite.